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Step 3: What Will
It Cost?
Some say you will need 60% to 85%
of your gross household income today to sustain the same lifestyle after
you retire. In theory, the higher your income today, the closer you are
to the lower end of that scale. However, it is recommended to look at
this issue in a slightly different fashion.
Sure, we could sit down to a long, drawn-out process in which we look
at our expenses and try to anticipate what they would be in retirement.
Why bother? After all, retirement is a long way off, and we have no real
idea of what those expenses will be then. You do, though, know that you
live comfortably today and that it is unlikely you will be saving money
or paying FICA (unless you choose to work) after you retire. Therefore,
excluding those items from your gross income, you can come up with a number
that is fairly close to what it would take to sustain your current lifestyle.
People want a retirement income that equals our gross income today less
all savings and all FICA taxes.
However, you still have to decide what income you will need in retirement
to live the way you want. Some folks can get by on much less than they
use now, while others may decide they want more. It is a personal choice
for all of us.
Now, let's talk about inflation. How much does our retirement savings have
to be in the year we retire after it has been adjusted for inflation over
the years between now and then? What should that inflation rate be anyway?
(Use one of our calculators to see how much your savings will be worth years
from now.) For how many years will we draw that income? Should it keep pace
with inflation throughout those years? Will we draw down our starting retirement
portfolio to support our income needs or just live off the earnings while
never touching the principal? If we can answer those questions, then we
can determine the starting portfolio we need at retirement to support us
for the rest of our lives.
We are getting into the realm of some pretty sophisticated calculations
based on several assumptions that, if changed, could radically alter our
results. What we need is a quick-and-dirty way to give us an idea of what
we need to do to get started. We will save the more complex calculations
for later.
So forget about inflation for the moment. Ignore Social Security and any
company pension you may get. Pretend your money gets no return now or
after retirement, but do count whatever you have saved for retirement
as of today. Let's say that amounts to $20,000. Further, let's say you
want an annual income of $30,000 in today's dollars after you retire,
that you will retire in 25 years, that you will live 20 years after you
retire, and that you expect to meet your maker waving your last dollar
bill.
How much do you need to amass by the start of your retirement to support
yourself in your golden years, and how much do you have to save each year
between now and then to get there?
You need $30,000 a year for 20 years, so that comes to $600,000 needed
in the first year of retirement. You already have $20,000 of that, so
that means you are only $580,000 short. Divide the shortage by the 25
years you have to save it up, and you discover you only have to cough
up $23,200 annually between now and the time you retire to a life of leisure.
Too much is omitted from this simple approach to provide a meaningful
answer to the question at hand. Worse, the answer we do get makes the
whole idea of saving for retirement seem to be an impossible task, but
this is far from true.
To do things right, we must take a cold, hard, objective look at our desired
income, subject it to a rational choice of assumptions, and make some
detailed calculations. The best way to do the calculations is with one
of the readily available software packages available commercially, such
as Quicken Financial Planner or one of our Retirement Calculators. Before
you use any of these tools, you need some preliminary information. At
a minimum, you want to:
- Decide on the annual income you desire in today's dollars.
- Pick a retirement date.
- Determine your lifetime average inflation rate.
- Determine the average rate of return you expect on your investments
before and after retirement.
- Determine the current market value of all your investments to include
regular accounts, IRAs, and company tax-deferred savings plans like
401(k) plans.
- Obtain an estimate of any company-provided pension benefit.
- Obtain an estimate of future Social Security benefits (see Step
7: Social Security).
Armed with this data, you can determine the annual savings required for
you to enjoy the good life. You will also be able to play "what if" games
and see the results quickly should you decide to vary things like inflation,
rates of return, date of retirement, and desired income.
We will leave you with one last thought. The earlier you start, the easier
it will be for you to amass the dollars you will need on the day you retire.
Say you put $1,000 per year for 25 years into an investment earning 10%
annually, you would have $108,182. Wait just five years before starting
that process, and on the same date in the future you would end up with
$63,002. That $5,000 you "saved" by waiting just cost you $45,180.
Now on to Step 4, where we'll show you where to get some free retirement
money.
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