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What is Investing?
The Investment Process
What is investing? Any time you invest, you are putting something of yours
into something else in order to achieve something greater. You can invest
your weekends in a good cause, you can invest your intelligence in your
job, or you can invest your time in a relationship. Just as you do each
of these with the expectation that something good will come of it, when
you invest your savings in a stock, bond, or mutual fund, you do so because
you think its value will appreciate over time.
Investing money is putting that money into some form of "security" - a
fancy word for anything that is "secured" by some assets. Stocks, bonds,
mutual funds, certificates of deposit - all of these are types of securities.
As with anything else, there are many different approaches to investing.
Some of these you have probably seen on late-night TV. A well-dressed,
wildly positive (though somewhat whiny) young man sits lazily waving palm
fronds and shakes his head over how incredibly easy it is to amass vast
wealth - in no time at all! That sounds fine! However, discerning minds
will wonder: If it were so easy, would not everyone who saw the same pitch
be rich? Then, too, you always have to send some money to learn the secrets.
So we suggest you take the $25 you would spend on the hardcover EZ Secrets
to Untold Billions book and the $500 you would shell out for the EZ Seminar,
and invest it yourself - after you have learned the basics here.
Time Value of Money
A dollar is not always worth a dollar. Sometimes a dollar is only worth
80 cents, and sometimes it is worth $1.20. How can it be? The value of
a dollar changes dramatically depending on when you can take control of
the dollar and invest it. The critical variable in the exact value of
a dollar is time.
If someone owes you a dollar, do you want him to pay you today or next
year? The answer is, "Today." With inflation consistently destroying the
purchasing power of a dollar, a year from now a dollar will be worth slightly
less than it is today. "Inflation" is an economic term used to describe
the gradual tendency of prices to rise over time. If inflation is 2% per
year, that means that prices, on average, will rise 2% over the next year,
which in turn means that your dollar can purchase 2 cents less in a year
than it can today. That is right, with 2% inflation a dollar today is
worth only 98 cents in a year.
However, if you got the dollar back today, you could invest it. If you
invested it in the stock market, and your investment returned 10% over
the course of the year (which is somewhat less than the market average
has historically returned), then you would have $1.10 at the end of the
year. So your money would be growing instead of shrinking, and you would
be staving off the negative effects of inflation.
The Miracle of Compounding
In fact, if you leave this dollar invested, its value will mushroom over
time through the miracle of compounding. As you earn investment returns,
your returns begin to gain returns as well, allowing you to turn a measly
dollar into thousands of dollars if you leave it invested long enough.
The more money you save and invest today, the more you will have in the
future. Real wealth, the stuff of dreams, is in fact created almost magically
through the most mundane and commonplace principles: patience, time, and
the power of compounding.
Look at it another way -- if you were to take a mere $20 a week and put
it into an index fund, then at the end of 40 years, assuming a modest
12% return, you would have just over a million bucks. For $20 a week,
or a total of $40,800 out-of-pocket along the way.
Real Returns
Compounding is so miraculous that even at relatively low returns you can
double and triple your money over long periods of time. When someone brags
about doubling his money in 10 years, for instance, you should not just
smile and nod about how great he did. You only need a 7.1% annual return
to double your money in 10 years. If the Standard and Poor's 500, a widely
used barometer of the stock market, has gone up 10.6% a year, the poor
fellow who doubled his money in ten years has actually underperformed
the market. So now the trick becomes: In order to increase your money,
how could you invest it so that it outperforms the market?
Now, let's say your investments earned 10% last year. How much did you
really make? Well, the last time we checked the taxman wants to grab a
piece of what you earn. One of the most significant factors investors
tend to leave out when assessing their investment returns is the tax consequence.
Even if you have a long-term capital gain that is only taxed at 20%, a
10% return quickly becomes 8%. And for short-term gains, the tax bite
is even greater. At any rate, the question of importance for you is: "How
much do I end up with at the end of the day?"
Another factor that affects returns, as we mentioned above, is inflation.
So if your investments made 10% after taxes last year and inflation reduced
your principal's buying power by 2%, then you actually only made a real
return of 8%. All you need to do is to take your annualized after-tax
return and subtract the annual rate of inflation. How can you find out
what inflation was? Every quarter the government reports the Consumer
Price Index (CPI), which is what most investors use as a proxy for general
inflation at the consumer level. You can find it in your local newspaper's
business section or at the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Investing Versus Speculating
About now you may be sitting back thinking about your brother-in-law who
"made a killing" in options, or maybe you are reminiscing about that Nevada
vacation when one lucky quarter magically drew out 700 more with the pull
of a slot machine lever. Why put your money in slow-and-steady investment
vehicles that merely promise double-digit returns when you could have
near-instant riches? With compounding, you have to wait patiently for
years for your riches to accumulate. What if you want it all now?
Granted, there is nothing exhilarating about predictability. Sure, tales
of your fifth year beating the performance of the Standard and Poor's
500 Index won't make you the life of the party. However, neither will
the far more common tales about how you lost your savings on some speculation,
and your subsequent adventures in bankruptcy court.
What are the odds of winning the lottery jackpot? Well, it depends on
the lottery - they may be 1 in 7 million, or 1 in 18 million, or somewhere
in between. You have a far greater chance of dying from flesh-eating bacteria
- 1 in a million - than you do of winning that jackpot!
You do not need to go to Las Vegas to gamble. There are plenty of stock
market gamblers who do an admirable job of losing their money on seemingly
legitimate pursuits. We think that commodities and options are just as
risky as a Vegas craps game. In fact, we believe investors "gamble" every
time they commit money to something they do not understand.
This, of course, may be true of stocks as well as of commodities and options.
Say you overhear your best friend's dentist's nanny talking about a company
called New Age Technology at a cocktail party. "This thing is gonna go
through the roof in the next few months," she says in a stage whisper.
If you call your broker the first thing the next morning to place an order
for 100 shares, you have just gambled. Do you know what New Age Technology
does? Are you familiar with its competition? What were its earnings last
quarter? There are a lot of questions you should ask about a company before
you throw your hard-earned cash at a "hot" stock. There is nothing too
hot about losing your money because you did not take the time to understand
what you were investing in.
Remember: Every dollar that you speculate with and lose is a dollar that
is not working for you over the long-term to create wealth. Speculation
promises to give you everything you want right now but rarely delivers;
patience almost guarantees those goals down the road.
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